Can African manufacturing deliver both commercial viability and transformative impact?
October 2026
Manufacturing Africa, in collaboration with the LSE Trade Policy Hub and Growth Lab, analysed its portfolio of more than 260 manufacturing and agribusiness deals across six sub-Saharan African markets to explore this question. The research examined five dimensions of economic transformation: Jobs & Livelihoods, Climate & Environment, Gender & Social Inclusion (GESI), Multiplier Effects, and Inclusive Economic Transformation (IET). It also tested a critical industry assumption: are deals with greater transformative potential less likely to reach financial close?
Greater ambition does not mean greater commercial risk
Complex, high-impact projects in emerging markets are often perceived as riskier or more difficult to execute. However, the research found comparable financial close rates across deals regardless of their transformative ambition:
- High-ambition deals close at comparable rates: Deals scoring highest on Inclusive Economic Transformation reached financial close at approximately 67%, compared with 63% for less ambitious deals.
- Greenfield and brownfield parity: Despite the perceived risk of new builds, greenfield projects accounted for 51% of closed deals, compared with 49% for brownfield expansions.
- Scale without penalty: Transactions exceeding US$30 million recorded financial close rates of 47%–56%, showing no clear disadvantage relative to mid-sized deals.
While more complex, multi-impact deals may take longer to structure because of their operational requirements, greater transformative ambition does not reduce a deal’s chances of reaching financial close.
Turning evidence into better investment decisions
African manufacturing investment can deliver more than just business growth. It can create jobs, strengthen domestic industries, expand economic participation, and contribute to environmental objectives. Pursuing these outcomes does not require sacrificing the likelihood of reaching financial close.
For investors, DFIs, and policymakers, the opportunity is to look beyond the perceived trade-off between commercial viability and economic transformation, and use evidence to make better capital allocation decisions.
Explore the full report
The full report presents the quantitative analysis, country-level findings and case studies behind these insights, examining how transaction facilitation can help unlock private investment across East and West Africa.
Download the full report to explore the detailed findings and recommendations.
