The global novel alternate protein market is expected to grow from USD ~20-30 billion in 2024, to USD ~50 -100 billion by 2035. While the market has underperformed historic growth expectations, several global trends including changing consumer preferences, technology development, continued investment, and entrance of players along the value chain suggest that the market will continue to grow.
This report assesses the market size for alternate proteins in sub-Saharan Africa and outlines the critical enablers needed to support market growth. The report incorporates findings from interviews with over 70 industry players (alternate protein companies, humanitarian aid agencies, food retailers, and investors) and in-market research (including consumer focus groups and retail visits).
Why novel alternate proteins in Africa?
Globally, the trend towards novel alternate proteins is largely driven by consumers seeking to switch away from animal protein for sustainability or perceived health benefits as well as trends towards a higher-protein diet (contributing to greater fortification of products such as breakfast cereals).
However, in sub-Saharan Africa, the potential for novel alternate proteins has different underlying drivers. Today, sub-Saharan Africa1 has a protein deficit of ~20% (i.e., on average, people eat 20% or 13 g per capita per day too little utilisable protein compared to health recommendations). Animal protein demand in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double by 2035 based on population and income growth, halving the current protein deficit from 13g to 6g per capita per day. However, sub-Saharan Africa may not be able to meet the animal productivity required to supply this demand, let alone go further to close the protein gap.
Therefore, although novel alternate proteins are unlikely to be a full substitute for animal protein in sub-Saharan Africa, they could present a complementary opportunity to combat malnutrition, strengthen food security, provide affordable protein, and adapt to local cultural and dietary habits (e.g., fasting periods in Ethiopia, traditional use of protein-rich indigenous crops). At the same time, the market faces some headwinds in sub-Saharan Africa, such as the low formalisation of the retail market, affordability challenges for most protein sources, and the important role livestock ownership plays in many cultures.
The opportunity in sub-Saharan Africa.
We estimate the novel alternate protein market in sub-Saharan Africa in 2035 to range from USD ~1.1-2.2 billion, an expected 1-4% of the total global market. With an estimated investment potential of USD ~1-2 bn, the market could generate ~40-80k jobs by 2035. Today, there are already >100 start-ups present in the novel alternate protein space on the continent.
In total, 51 novel alternate protein opportunities were identified across 4 categories: sub- consumer market, humanitarian food aid, animal feed, and exports of alternate protein inputs (e.g., isolates). Out of this, 16 were prioritised based on screening criteria (technological maturity expected by 2035 and a range of feasibility factors such as expected price parity, consumer preference, and availability of inputs).
Findings by category
Consumer market: The sub-Saharan African consumer market presents the largest market potential overall at ~70% of the total opportunity. In the consumer market, a large share of demand is driven by high-income populations looking to substitute some share of meat and dairy consumption with alternatives. This translates into 1-3% of the total formal protein market by 2035 – roughly similar to the US today, but lower than the expected 6-8% in the US and Europe in 2035.3,4
The largest opportunity in the consumer market (and the largest overall) is the creation of new affordable alternate protein products (e.g., protein chunks) tailored to the mass market (~65% of the population) and acting as a complement to existing protein consumption. This “tofu for Africa” could contribute to closing the protein gap for some consumers. However, it will require product development to create a product that is suitable to local dietary preferences and taste profiles, affordable, and accessible (e.g., long shelf life).
Humanitarian food aid: Use of alternate proteins for humanitarian food aid faces significant barriers. For humanitarian organisations, the low caloric content of most alternate proteins, higher cost, and strict regulations on product formulation are major barriers. Our high scenario assumes some organisations are willing to pay a premium and consider alternate proteins (especially if locally sourced/produced).
Animal feed: Insects for animal feed could be significant but face some challenges. Black soldier fly technically can be substitutable for ~90% of soybean meal in animal feed.
However, the availability of quality, capturable biomass that are the main inputs to BSF and high logistics costs of transporting that biomass constrain the size of this market. Therefore, the opportunity is likely to materialize best where BSF companies can either capture large sources of commercial waste for livestock feed or sell at a premium in the pet food market.
Inputs to global demand: We focused on pea-based isolates as an opportunity, given that the market is expected to be in an undersupply over the next decade. However, sub-Saharan Africa cannot produce isolates cost-competitively driven by a limited domestic market for the starch by-products. There is an opportunity to export raw fava beans and possibly mung for isolate processing abroad.
Critical enablers
Delivering on this market will require companies to innovate in developing products suitable to the local market that are affordable and accessible. To support this, the market will require innovative finance (including particularly venture capital), offtake partnerships (with retailers, food manufacturers, and animal feed companies), supply chain collaborations (e.g., for collection of organic waste for black soldier fly production), development of industry standards around food labelling and quality, and knowledge-transfer partnerships on technology and equipment with global players. In addition, R&D on the use of indigenous crops (e.g., Bambara nuts) and tailoring to local preferences (e.g., for fortification of foods like ugali) will be key.
Conclusion
While the novel alternate protein remains small today even globally (~1-2% of all protein consumption), the market is expected to grow until 2035, with an inflection point expected in the 2040s as costs come down and technologies improve, potentially accelerating growth significantly until 2050. In this context, sub-Saharan African companies have an opportunity no to develop local fit-for-purpose products that help fill the protein deficit and address food security.
For a full analysis of the novel alternate protein market opportunity in Africa, download the full report here.
For specific questions concerning the report, please email info@manufacturingafrica.org
